Is Gold a Critical Mineral?

Is Gold a Critical Mineral?

I know this is going to be really contentious, but I would argue it is. In an era dominated by headlines about electric vehicles, renewable energy, and supply chain chokepoints for lithium or rare earths, gold often gets overlooked in discussions of “critical minerals.” Yet, as geopolitical tensions simmer, inflation lingers, and trust in fiat currencies wavers, gold’s timeless role as the ultimate store of value demands a re-evaluation. This article argues that gold isn’t just a shiny relic—it’s a strategic asset essential to economic stability and national security, warranting if not inclusion on critical minerals lists, then special strategic status and consideration in national policies.

Critical Minerals and Strategic Minerals

While the terms “critical minerals” and “strategic minerals” are often used interchangeably in policy discussions, they carry nuanced distinctions. Critical minerals are non-fuel minerals essential to the economy and national security, with supply chains vulnerable to disruption, and whose absence would cause significant economic or security consequences. The USGS maintains a dynamic lists, that currently includes 60 commodities as of 2025 (10 formerly strategic minerals were upgraded). Emphasizing broad economic applications like clean energy, electronics, and manufacturing, alongside import reliance and geopolitical risks.

Strategic minerals, by contrast, traditionally focus more narrowly on national defence and emergency stockpiling, originating from Cold War-era policies like the Strategic and Critical Materials Stock Piling Act of 1939. They prioritize materials vital for military hardware, such as alloys for aircraft or munitions, and are managed by the Defense Logistics Agency for wartime readiness; examples include titanium or chromium for defence tech. The overlap is substantial—many critical minerals double as strategic ones—but critical encompasses wider civilian economic resilience, while strategic underscores immediate security imperatives. This evolution reflects a post-2020 shift toward integrated supply chain security amid global competition, particularly with China dominating processing for over 80% of rare earths.

Why Gold is Definitely a Strategic Mineral—and Likely a Critical One by Key Measures

Gold unequivocally qualifies as a strategic mineral, serving as the ultimate hedge for national security in financial warfare and economic crises, with central banks worldwide—including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 8,133-tonne Fort Knox holdings—stockpiling it as a non-dilutable reserve asset to stabilize currencies, fund emergencies, and counter sanctions, much like titanium for jets but for monetary sovereignty. Its scarcity (only ~220,000 tonnes above-ground globally) and neutrality have historically anchored systems like Bretton Woods, enabling rapid liquidity in turmoil (e.g., Russia’s post-2022 pivot to gold-backed trades bypassing SWIFT); excluding it from strategic frameworks ignores its role in defending against hyperinflation or de-dollarization threats from BRICS nations. By extension, gold is likely a critical mineral under USGS criteria via three key measures: (1) economic essentiality, as it underpins financial stability and wealth preservation, with U.S. demand tied to ETFs and jewellery absorbing 25% of global supply, and disruptions could cascade into market panics akin to 2008; (2) national security impacts, where gold’s absence from diversification strategies leaves the dollar exposed, as seen in 2025’s central bank buying spree (1,037 tonnes net), potentially inflating prices 50%+ in scarcity scenarios and eroding U.S. leverage. It is clear from both Chinese and Russian explicit policies that they consider gold a strategic asset, under significant export restrictions and formally buying most domestic production and importing even more, as well as explicitly encouraging their citizens to do so as well.

The Traditional Definition of a Critical Mineral: A Framework Ripe for Expansion

Critical minerals are those “essential to the economy and national security of the Nation” with “supply chains that are vulnerable to disruption.” This definition is pragmatic and forward-looking, but it’s narrowly focused on industrial applications. It overlooks assets like gold, whose criticality lies not in widgets or widgets but in preserving wealth and stabilizing currencies amid chaos. Gold’s supply is finite (only about 244,000 metric tons ever mined globally), and its demand surges precisely when economies falter—making its chain vulnerable to mining disruptions, sanctions, or hoarding by adversarial states. By expanding the lens to include monetary resilience, gold fits the bill as a critical mineral for the 21st century.

Gold’s Historical Role: The Original Currency of Civilization

Gold’s story begins not in boardrooms but in the cradle of human progress, emerging independently across continents as the timeless emblem of value. As early as 600 BCE in ancient Lydia (modern-day Turkey), King Croesus minted the world’s first gold coins, into standardized money that facilitated trade across empires—yet this innovation echoed parallel developments in Asia, where gold’s universality as currency took root millennia earlier. In ancient India, in the Indus Valley Civilization around 2500 BCE, where gold served as beads, ornaments, and proto-coins, symbolizing wealth in Vedic rituals and royal tributes that underpinned one of the world’s earliest economies. Unlike perishable goods or cumbersome barter items like livestock, gold was durable, divisible, portable, and scarce—qualities that made it a universal medium of exchange, from the Egyptians’ burial hoards and Rome’s aurei coins to the bridal dowries of Indian brides and the dragon-embossed bars of Chinese emperors.

In China during the Zhou Dynasty (1046–256 BCE), gold ingots and vessels functioned as elite currency and gifts, later formalized in the Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE) as a monetary standard alongside bronze, enabling Silk Road commerce and imperial expansion. Historian William Dalrymple, in The Golden Road: How Ancient India Transformed the World (2024), characterizes Indian gold as the bedrock of civilization for thousands of years, integral to an economic and cultural network that spread ideas, religions, and innovations across Eurasia—positioning India not as a peripheral player but as the foundational hub of global connectivity from 250 BCE to 1200 CE. As a trading nation, India stood at the centre of world commerce in a fully gold-denominated system, leveraging monsoon winds to export spices, gemstones, cotton, ivory, and wild animals via the “Golden Road”—a maritime route that funnelled Roman gold eastward in vast quantities. Rome, in turn, was emptying out its coffers to India: following the conquest of Egypt in 30 BCE, a third of the Roman imperial budget derived from customs taxes on these imports, with Pliny the Elder lamenting India as “the sink of the world’s most precious metal” as aurei and denarii flooded south, where the largest stock of ancient Roman gold coins can still be found. Dalrymple noted not only how India’s mineral wealth and manufactured goods drained Roman reserves but also seeded the Indosphere, influencing Southeast Asia post-Rome’s fall in the fifth century, where gold-backed trade birthed monumental temples like Borobudur and Angkor Wat.

By the 19th century, the gold standard anchored global currencies, with nations like Britain pegging the pound to a fixed ounce of gold, ensuring stability and trust in international trade that bridged these ancient traditions into modern finance. There is to this day no nation in the world that disputes gold’s value. Historically gold enabled the financing of wars, exploration, and industrialization, from funding the Mughal Empire’s grandeur to powering Britain’s Industrial Revolution. Its psychological allure—rare, untarnishable, and evocative of eternity—cemented it as a symbol of enduring value, has outlasted empires from the Incas to the British. Even after the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971 amid Vietnam War costs and inflation, gold’s historical pedigree underscores its irreplaceable role: it’s the one asset that has held value across millennia and cultures, a golden thread weaving through human civilization’s economic fabric.

The Present Role: Gold as the Ultimate Non-Dilutable Store of Value

Today, gold’s primacy endures not as circulating coinage but as a bulwark against fiat fragility. With a fixed supply (no central authority can “print” more), it serves as the ultimate non-dilutable store of value, having historically always preserved purchasing power when paper currencies falter. Fiat money, decreed valuable by governments, derives its worth from trust and enforcement, but it’s prone to inflation through endless printing, eroding savings and distorting economies. A non-fiat alternative like gold is crucial because it acts as a hedge: during the 1970s stagflation, gold surged 2,300% while the dollar lost 80% of its value; in the 2008 crisis, it climbed 25% as stocks cratered. In essence, gold democratizes wealth preservation—it’s not beholden to any regime’s whims, offering individuals, institutions, and nations a neutral anchor. Without it, economies risk hyperinflation spirals (think Weimar Germany or modern Venezuela), where fiat becomes worthless kindling. Gold’s scarcity ensures it can’t be diluted, making it the “honest money” that fiat systems lack, especially vital in an age of ballooning debts and weaponized currencies.

Ray Dalio’s Views on the Lifespan of Fiat Currencies

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, views the lifespan of fiat currencies not as a fixed timeline but as inherently cyclical, tied to the “Big Debt Cycle” he outlines in books like Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order and his 2025 release How Countries Go Broke: The Big Debt Cycle. In his framework, fiat currencies—unbacked by hard assets like gold—emerge after the collapse of reserve-backed systems and endure for roughly 50–100 years in their dominant phase before succumbing to self-reinforcing pressures of excessive debt, money printing, and eroding trust. Drawing from 500 years of historical data he determines that currencies last about 80–100 years before devaluation crises force resets, often mirroring patterns from the 1930s (Great Depression defaults) and 1970s (Bretton Woods collapse). For the post-1971 U.S. dollar era, he warns we’re in the late “bubble stage” of this cycle, where unsustainable U.S. debt and global interconnectedness accelerate decline: governments print money to service debts, sparking inflation, political extremism, and productivity slumps, leading to a “go-down-together” effect where all fiat currencies weaken relative to hard assets. Dalio emphasizes that fiat’s end isn’t abrupt but culminates when “debt limits are reached” amid geopolitical conflicts and tech-driven costs, prompting de-dollarization and a return to asset (gold) backed systems.

Ray Dalio’s Opinion on Gold

Dalio is unequivocally bullish on gold, calling it “the safest money” and an “indisputable” store of value that has endured for thousands of years across nearly all civilizations, outlasting countless fiat experiments due to its scarcity, durability, and immunity to printing. In a world of fiat fragility, he sees gold as the ultimate diversifier and hedge—rising 25%+ during 1970s inflation and 2008 crises—especially now, with its price surpassing $4,000/oz in October 2025 amid U.S. debt surges and sanctions wars that boost demand (e.g., central banks added 1,037 tonnes net in 2024). He recommends 10–15% portfolio allocations to gold (via physical bars, ETFs like GLD, or mining stocks), higher than usual in this “1970s-like” environment of monetary debasement and de-globalization, where it could become the world’s second-largest reserve currency behind the dollar. Bridgewater’s $319 million Q1 2025 bet on gold underscores his actions, positioning it as “pure wealth” superior to Treasurys or even Bitcoin (which he holds modestly as a complementary “digital gold” but views as more volatile). Dalio’s logic: In debt crises, gold’s self-reinforcing spiral—universal acceptance meets limited supply, makes it indispensable, advising investors to “buy the dip” even at peaks for long-term stability.

Bitcoin: The Digital Heir to Gold’s Mantle

This quest for incorruptible value birthed Bitcoin in 2008, when pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto released a whitepaper titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.” Amid the global financial meltdown—triggered by fiat-fuelled housing bubbles and bailouts—Satoshi envisioned a decentralized digital currency free from banks’ double-spending risks, using blockchain’s proof-of-work to mimic gold mining: energy-intensive validation secures a capped supply of 21 million coins, echoing gold’s geological limits. Bitcoin’s principles—scarcity, portability, and censorship resistance—directly ape gold’s, positioning it as “digital gold” for the internet age. Yet, where gold is physical and verifiable, Bitcoin scales globally without vaults. Its invention underscores gold’s enduring appeal: in a world of eroding trust, we crave assets that can’t be conjured from thin air. By 2025, with Bitcoin’s market cap rivalling gold’s in volatility-adjusted terms, it validates gold’s model while highlighting the latter’s tangible edge in crises.

Dominic Frisby’s Arguments on Gold as Fundamental Money and the Impending Reset

In The Secret History of Gold: Myth, Money, Politics and Power (2025), Dominic Frisby posits gold as the singular fundamental form of money due to its cosmic origins—formed in the solar system’s fiery birth—and its unparalleled attributes of scarcity, durability, malleability, and corrosion resistance, which have rendered it the world’s oldest and most treasured currency across millennia. Unlike fiat currencies prone to manipulation and debasement, gold’s intrinsic value stems from its universal allure, having fuelled civilizations and outlasted empires, wars, and economic upheavals, embodying “pure wealth” that inspires both genius and atrocity, from Alexander the Great’s campaigns to modern central bank hoarding. Frisby warns of a big monetary reset likely within the next few years, driven by the fragility of the post-1971 fiat system—exacerbated by ballooning debts, inflation, de-dollarization efforts by China and Russia, and the weaponization of currencies in financial warfare—where gold’s revaluation could anchor a multipolar order, potentially surging to levels that eclipse current prices.

Willem Middelkoop’s Arguments on Gold as Fundamental Money and the Impending Reset

Willem Middelkoop, in The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame, contends that gold stands as the only true fundamental money because it is the sole reliable asset amid global economic turmoil, and offers scarcity and neutrality unmarred by the West’s orchestrated suppression through paper markets, leasing, and derivatives that mask its true value. As a hedge against fiat’s endless expansion and central bank manipulations, gold’s historical role as the ultimate reserve currency, the economic system’s bedrock, with Eastern powers like China and Russia amassing vast undeclared reserves to counter dollar dominance, positioning it not just as wealth preservation but as the ethical counterweight to a debt-fuelled Ponzi scheme that enriches elites at the expense of savers. Middelkoop predicts a seismic monetary reset imminently triggered by the dollar’s inexorable loss of reserve status, exacerbated by U.S.-China trade wars, sanctions-induced deglobalization, and commodity shortages; this “endgame” will reintroduce gold as a pillar of the new order, revalued to $5,000–$7,000 per ounce, urging investors to hold physical metals as inflation surges.

Geopolitical Imperatives: China, Russia, and Gold’s Central Banking Lifeline

No one grasps gold’s strategic heft like China and Russia, the world’s top producers who wield it as a sovereignty shield. In 2024, China mined a record 380 tonnes—over 12% of global output—while Russia produced 330 tonnes, funnelling most into national reserves. Both nations consume voraciously: China, the largest jewellery and investment market, imported over 1,000 tonnes in 2024 alone, blending cultural demand with state strategy. Their central banks explicitly treat gold as essential infrastructure. Russia’s Central Bank, sanctioned post-Ukraine invasion, stockpiled 2,336 tonnes by mid-2025, using gold guarantees to bypass SWIFT and settle trades in rupees or yuan. Globally, central banks bought a net 1,037 tonnes in 2024—the third consecutive year over 1,000.

China’s Official vs. Estimated Reserves

Authors like Dominic Frisby and Willem Middelkoop have long illuminated gold’s shadowy underbelly, blending historical analysis with sharp critiques of modern finance. They argue gold’s resurgence isn’t hype but a return to fundamentals, especially as fiat systems strain. China is the epicentre of this shift, quietly amassing a war chest that could redefine global power. Their theses align: China’s official gold figures are a fraction of reality, built on decades of production, smuggling, and strategic buying, with holdings dispersed across a web of repositories to evade scrutiny. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) officially reports 2,303.5 tonnes of reserves as of Q3 2025, up from 2,298.5 tonnes in Q2—a modest 5-tonne bump from September buys alone. This places China sixth globally, behind the U.S. (8,133 tonnes), but it’s a number many dismiss as theatre. The PBoC’s disclosures are sporadic and conservative, often pausing updates during buying sprees to avoid spooking markets or tipping rivals.

Based on production alone, estimates explode. China mined a record 380 tonnes in 2024 (projected ~400 tonnes in 2025), the world’s highest, yet only a sliver hits official ledgers. Add unchecked imports—over 1,000 tonnes annually via Hong Kong and Shanghai, minus minimal exports—and the math screams underreporting. Analysts like Frisby crunch these flows: from 2000–2025, domestic mining yielded ~10,000 tonnes, imports another ~15,000–20,000 tonnes (factoring smuggling and over-the-counter deals), plus pre-2000 private holdings (~2,500 tonnes in jewellery alone). His “flow-based calculations” tally to a staggering 31,625 tonnes total in China by late 2025, with the state controlling at least half—~15,800 tonnes, nearly double America’s stash. More conservative voices, like Société Générale, peg state reserves at over 5,000 tonnes, with 2025 purchases 10x the declared 25 tonnes (implying ~250 tonnes covertly acquired). Why hide? Strategic surprise: revealing the full hoard could rocket prices, signal de-dollarization aggression, or invite sanctions.

The Repositories: A Fortress of Vaults Beyond Beijing

China’s gold isn’t piled in one Fort Knox equivalent—it’s a decentralized arsenal, blending official vaults with quasi-private silos for flexibility and deniability. The PBoC’s primary repository is its fortified vaults in Beijing, housing the lion’s share of declared reserves under heavy guard, integrated with the central bank’s forex operations. But that’s just the tip. The real network spans:

• Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGE) Vaults: The nerve centre for physical trading, storing ~10,000–15,000 tonnes in bonded warehouses). Much “imported” gold never leaves these facilities, funnelled to state entities without PBoC accounting. Shanghai’s Free Trade Zone enables “ghost flows”—gold enters, gets swapped or leased, and reclassifies as domestic.

• China Investment Corporation (CIC) and Sovereign Wealth Funds: As China’s $1.3 trillion SWF, CIC holds undisclosed bullion offshore (London, Zurich) and domestically, estimated at 1,000–2,000 tonnes. It’s not PBoC turf, but mobilizable for national needs.

• Provincial and State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Depots: Gold from mines often stays regional—in vaults in Liaoning (site of the 1,444-tonne discovery announced November 2025) or Henan—before “donating” to the state. SOEs like Zijin Mining have become among the top 5 gold mining companies globally.

• Offshore and “Shadow” Sites: Up to 20% may lurk abroad in unpublicized inland bunkers, as hinted in 2014 Forbes probes of “missing” gold. Temples and private vaults add cultural camouflage, with the state having the right to reclaim ~50% in crises.

This sprawl ensures resilience: if one site faces audit or attack, others endure. In turbulent 2025, with gold at $4,200/oz, this hidden hoard isn’t just wealth; it’s a geopolitical arsenal.

The Finite Gold Supply: Stocks, Production, and Remaining Potential

As of end-2024, the total above-ground stock of gold—all ever mined and still in existence, minus losses or irretrievable recycling—stood at approximately 216,265 metric tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Ongoing mining added ~3,200 tonnes in 2024, pushing the total to ~219,800 tonnes by November 30, 2025, with ~3,600 tonnes projected for the full year amid steady demand.

Annual global mine production hit ~3,500 tonnes in 2024, led by China (380 tonnes), Russia (330 tonnes), Australia (310 tonnes), and the U.S. (160 tonnes), though Africa contributed a collective 800–900 tonnes across nations like Ghana, South Africa, and Mali. Illegal mining, accounts for an additional estimated 400–600 tonnes annually—10–20% of total output. Looking ahead, economically viable reserves total ~54,770 tonnes as of end-2024, concentrated in Australia (~12,000 tonnes), Russia, and Indonesia. Broader identified resources that could become mineable under ideal conditions add ~132,110 tonnes, but at prevailing rates, known reserves could deplete in 15–20 years without breakthroughs in exploration, recycling, or higher prices—reinforcing gold’s scarcity in an inflationary era.

Central banks hold ~37,755 tonnes globally, valued at ~$4.4 trillion in 2024 (at an average $2,386/oz), with the U.S. officially commanding the largest share at 8,133 tonnes. The broader gold market—encompassing mining, jewellery, investment, and tech demand—reached $382 billion in 2024 but is on track for $550 billion in 2025, fuelled by year-to-date surges in central bank and ETF purchases and prices topping $4,200/oz amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Toward Turbulence: Strengthening Gold’s Critical Status and U.S. Stockpiles

If stable currency and enduring value are the lifeblood of human progress—then gold is their immutable guardian. As we barrel into 2025’s headwinds (persistent inflation above 3%, BRICS de-dollarization pushes, and AI-fuelled debt surges), gold’s defect-free profile—non-corrosive, universally trusted—only amplifies its strategic pull. Prices hit $4,217 per ounce in November 2025, up 58% year-over-year, underscoring demand’s inexorable rise. The U.S., with 8,133 tonnes in reserves (the world’s largest but stagnant since 1971), lags peers in proactive accumulation. China doesn’t just mine; it mandates domestic retention and state purchases, treating gold as a national moat. America should emulate this: authorize Federal Reserve buys (perhaps 500 tonnes annually), incentivize private vaults via tax breaks, and integrate gold into critical minerals policy. This isn’t nostalgia—it’s foresight. In a multipolar world, gold ensures resilience, from funding defences to rebuilding post-crisis. By reclassifying it as critical, the U.S. can mine its own deposits more aggressively (fifth globally at 170 tonnes in 2024) and secure supply chains, turning a historical asset into a modern shield.

In unstable eras, gold’s liquidity and neutrality shine: it hedges currency wars, funds black swan events, and signals credibility to markets. Gold isn’t just critical—it’s elemental. As fiat experiments strain under their own weight, reclaiming gold’s mantle isn’t optional; it’s survival. In the words of an ancient proverb: “All that glitters is not gold,” but in truth, when everything else fades, gold endures.

List of Key Sources on Gold Production, Reserves, and Related Topics

• Gold Demand Trends: Full Year 2024, World Gold Council, February 5, 2025

• Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: Gold Chapter, U.S. Geological Survey (Kristin N. Sheaffer), January 2025

• China Gold Reserves, Trading Economics, November 4, 2025

• How Much Gold Does China Really Have in 2025?, Dominic Frisby (The Flying Frisby), October 15, 2025

• How Much Gold Will Be Enough to Diversify China’s Reserves?, Reuters, September 2, 2025

• Chinese Gold Market Outlook 2025: Stabilising Demand, World Gold Council, December 6, 2024

• The Secret History of Gold: Myth, Money, Politics and Power, Dominic Frisby, Penguin Books, August 27, 2025

• The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame, Willem Middelkoop, Commodity Discovery Fund (revised edition), 2015 (with 2025 updates in related interviews)

• Global Mine Production by Country, World Gold Council, June 12, 2025

• Ghana and the Republic of Guinea Lead West Africa’s Gold Production Growth, Mine Magazine (NRi Digital), July 2024

• USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, U.S. Geological Survey, January 31, 2025

• William Dalrymple, The Golden Road: How Ancient India Transformed the World (2024),

• Ray Dalio Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order 2023 and his 2025 release How Countries Go Broke: The Big Debt Cycle.